Data-driven analysis of where home prices are heading in 2026. Regional breakdowns, mortgage rate projections, inventory trends, and what it all means for sellers.
HouseQuick is NOT a licensed financial advisor, economist, or investment professional. This forecast is compiled from publicly available data and third-party projections for educational purposes only. Market conditions change rapidly. Consult a licensed real estate professional or financial advisor before making property decisions.
After years of unprecedented volatility, the 2026 housing market is entering a period of stabilization with moderate growth. The days of 15%+ annual appreciation are behind us, but so are fears of a dramatic crash. Here's what the leading indicators tell us:
NAR projects 3.2% national appreciation in 2026, down from 4.1% in 2025. This represents a return to "normal" pre-pandemic growth rates of 3-4% annually.
Housing inventory is expected to reach 3.8 months of supply by mid-2026, up from 3.2 months in late 2025. Still a seller's market, but buyers gaining ground.
Millennial buyers (ages 29-44) continue driving demand. 4.8 million millennials turn 35 in 2026—peak homebuying age. Demographics support sustained demand.
Builders are completing 1.4 million units in 2026, the highest since 2007. New supply will ease pressure in markets with available land.
| Indicator | 2025 (Actual) | 2026 (Projected) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Home Price | $399,200 | $412,000 | +3.2% |
| Existing Home Sales | 4.15M | 4.45M | +7.2% |
| Days on Market (Avg) | 34 days | 38 days | +4 days |
| Inventory (Months) | 3.2 | 3.8 | +18.7% |
| 30-Year Fixed Rate | 6.8% | 6.1% | -0.7% |
Sources: National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, U.S. Census Bureau
Mortgage rates are the single biggest factor affecting affordability—and buyer demand. After peaking at 7.8% in late 2023, rates have been on a slow decline. Here's what the major forecasters expect for 2026:
Lower mortgage rates = more qualified buyers. Every 0.5% drop in rates increases buyer purchasing power by roughly 5%. If rates drop to 6.0% as projected, a buyer who could afford $380K at 6.8% can now afford $400K. This supports home prices and seller leverage throughout 2026.
The national average hides dramatic regional variation. Some markets will see 6%+ appreciation in 2026, while others may experience flat or declining prices. Here's the breakdown by region:
The South continues leading growth thanks to population migration, job growth, and relative affordability. Texas and Florida remain magnets for relocating families and remote workers. However, insurance costs in FL and property taxes in TX are headwinds.
The Midwest is having a moment. Affordability-driven migration from expensive coastal markets is boosting demand. Cities like Indianapolis, Columbus, and Kansas City offer median prices 40-50% below national average with strong job markets.
The West faces affordability constraints and outmigration. California, once the growth engine, continues losing residents to Texas, Arizona, and Nevada. Tech layoffs have cooled Bay Area demand. However, secondary markets in Utah and Idaho remain strong.
The Northeast shows mixed signals. NYC is rebounding as office workers return, but high taxes and cost of living continue pushing families to the suburbs and beyond. Limited new construction keeps prices elevated despite slower demand.
Below is our state-by-state projection for 2026 home price changes, based on aggregated forecasts from NAR, Zillow, Redfin, and regional economic data.
| State | 2025 | 2026 | Change | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | $232K | $241K | +3.9% | Strong |
| Alaska | $365K | $372K | +1.9% | Moderate |
| Arizona | $425K | $439K | +3.3% | Strong |
| Arkansas | $198K | $206K | +4.0% | Strong |
| California | $785K | $793K | +1.0% | Moderate |
| Colorado | $545K | $556K | +2.0% | Moderate |
| Connecticut | $385K | $396K | +2.9% | Good |
| Delaware | $355K | $366K | +3.1% | Good |
| Florida | $410K | $423K | +3.2% | Good |
| Georgia | $345K | $360K | +4.3% | Strong |
| Hawaii | $895K | $908K | +1.5% | Moderate |
| Idaho | $455K | $475K | +4.4% | Strong |
| Illinois | $265K | $270K | +1.9% | Moderate |
| Indiana | $235K | $247K | +5.1% | Strong |
| Iowa | $205K | $213K | +3.9% | Strong |
| Kansas | $225K | $234K | +4.0% | Strong |
| Kentucky | $215K | $225K | +4.7% | Strong |
| Louisiana | $198K | $203K | +2.5% | Good |
| Maine | $365K | $376K | +3.0% | Good |
| Maryland | $405K | $418K | +3.2% | Good |
| Massachusetts | $595K | $616K | +3.5% | Strong |
| Michigan | $235K | $243K | +3.4% | Good |
| Minnesota | $335K | $348K | +3.9% | Strong |
| Mississippi | $178K | $184K | +3.4% | Good |
| Missouri | $245K | $256K | +4.5% | Strong |
| Montana | $465K | $479K | +3.0% | Good |
| Nebraska | $265K | $276K | +4.2% | Strong |
| Nevada | $425K | $435K | +2.4% | Good |
| New Hampshire | $475K | $494K | +4.0% | Strong |
| New Jersey | $495K | $510K | +3.0% | Good |
| New Mexico | $315K | $326K | +3.5% | Strong |
| New York | $435K | $447K | +2.8% | Good |
| North Carolina | $355K | $371K | +4.5% | Strong |
| North Dakota | $275K | $284K | +3.3% | Good |
| Ohio | $225K | $236K | +4.9% | Strong |
| Oklahoma | $198K | $206K | +4.0% | Strong |
| Oregon | $485K | $497K | +2.5% | Good |
| Pennsylvania | $275K | $283K | +2.9% | Good |
| Rhode Island | $435K | $453K | +4.1% | Strong |
| South Carolina | $315K | $330K | +4.8% | Strong |
| South Dakota | $305K | $318K | +4.3% | Strong |
| Tennessee | $355K | $372K | +4.8% | Strong |
| Texas | $335K | $349K | +4.2% | Strong |
| Utah | $525K | $546K | +4.0% | Strong |
| Vermont | $375K | $386K | +2.9% | Good |
| Virginia | $395K | $411K | +4.1% | Strong |
| Washington | $585K | $602K | +2.9% | Good |
| West Virginia | $155K | $159K | +2.6% | Good |
| Wisconsin | $285K | $296K | +3.9% | Strong |
| Wyoming | $335K | $345K | +3.0% | Good |
Data aggregated from NAR, Zillow, Redfin, and state housing authority projections. Individual market results may vary significantly from state averages.
Timing matters. Historical data shows sellers can capture 5-10% more by listing at optimal times. Here's what the 2026 calendar looks like:
Premium/discount vs. annual median sale price. Based on NAR historical data 2019-2025.
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This 2026 housing market forecast was compiled by the HouseQuick research team using data from NAR, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Zillow, Redfin, and U.S. Census Bureau. Projections are for educational purposes only and actual results may vary.